Governor Bush is wise to pay attention to those three E’s. Once considered a shoo-in for re-election, Bush now faces a formidable opponent in Bill McBride, a Tampa lawyer and Vietnam vet who is just the sort of folksy Democrat who does well in Florida. According to one poll last week, McBride had soared to within six points of Bush, who drew fire for ballot foul-ups during the primary. That has the White House worried about W’s prospects in 2004 and Democrats primed to avenge their loss in 2000.
McBride has found plenty to attack in Bush’s record. Hewing to the Democratic line on the economy, he has blamed Jeb’s tax cuts for a $1.4 billion budget deficit. On education–the state’s top issue–McBride has assailed Bush’s pro-testing and pro-voucher policies and such abysmal indicators as Florida’s 50th-place ranking in high-school graduation rates. McBride’s pledge: to reduce class sizes and raise teacher salaries.
Despite the attack, Bush isn’t running away from his record. As he repeatedly points out, he’s the only one who has a record, since McBride has never held public office. Unlike big brother, Bush relishes the role of wonk–repeatedly spitting out numbers and policy minutiae in his first debate against McBride last Friday night. “My opponent will make big promises,” Bush told the audience. “But he won’t tell you how to pay for those promises–higher taxes.” Bush has also accused McBride of kowtowing to the unions. “McBride is a classic big- government liberal,” says Mac Stipanovich, a GOP consultant who has Bush’s ear. “That dog don’t hunt in Florida.”
Whoever seduces the most independents and moderates will win. McBride may have demographics on his side. In Florida’s booming middle, flocks of recently arrived young professionals and non-Cuban Hispanics are tilting the state Democratic. But Bush will reach more of them, drawing on a war chest of nearly $30 million–twice what McBride hopes to collect. And he can rely on several more trips from big brother, who’s already visited 10 times in two years. W may want to talk war, but for Jeb, the key to the election is more butter than guns.
