If you haven’t been to the wedding, don’t go to the funeral.
A wise horse player once said that. In fact, he repeats it every time we’re in the situation we’re in this weekend.
As it relates to Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, the adage means this: If you didn’t bet American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby and you didn’t bet him in the Preakness, now is probably not the time to jump on board.
The Triple Crown hopeful’s morning-line odds are 3-to-5, and at that price, we’ll look elsewhere for our wager. Sure, it would be nice to see American Pharoah become the first horse to accomplish the Triple Crown feat since 1978, but it would be even nicer to cash a fat ticket on Saturday.
Recent history tells us the Belmont is not kind to favorites and is a race for longshots. The last favorite to win it was Afleet Alex in 2005. Six of the last seven winners have gone off at odds of 9-to-1 or greater, and since 1999, we’ve seen bombs such as Lemon Drop Kid (29-to-1), Sarava (70-to-1), Birdstone (36-to-1) and Da Tara (38-to-1) come out on top.
So some of us will be taking our shots against the Pharoah tomorrow. Here are the top selections of three of our horse racing panelists. Check back at The Linemakers on Sporting News later on Friday for more picks from our contributors.
Richard Eng, horse racing writer, Las Vegas Review-Journal Mubtaahij. He’s in good health, and his trainer, Michael de Kock, is one of the world’s best. Mubtaahij has the best pedigree in the Belmont for the marathon distance. And now he has a jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., who is a leading rider in New York and has course knowledge.
Read Richard’s complete Belmont preview in the Review-Journal.
Chris Andrews, veteran handicapper and bookmakerMubtaahij. Mike De Kock feels he didn’t properly prepare the UAE Derby winner for American racing when he ran 8th in the Kentucky Derby. Since then, he has trained hard for this with seven listed workouts. They add Ortiz, one of New Your’s best riders to give Mubtaahij his best shot. He’ll be a nice price, and I expect a big effort.
Jump over to Chris’ site, Against the Number, for plenty more on the Belmont.
Marcus DiNitto, editor, The Linemakers on Sporting NewsMateriality. The 110 Beyer Speed Figure Materiality posted in his Florida Derby win is 5 points higher than American Pharoah’s best. His performance in the Derby was far more impressive than the sixth-place finish suggests, as he battled through a terrible trip and finished well. Todd Pletcher is a two-time Belmont winner and has this colt rested and ready for Saturday. Jockey John Velazquez owns Belmont Park and was aboard filly Rags to Riches for Pletcher’s 2007 Belmont victory.
More: Horse-by-horse breakdown | Odds history
