Phoenix,AZ.: Isn’t only an extremely wealthy candidate like Bloomberg (or Ross Perot) the only person who could even consider contending as an independent and matching the advertising, promotions and staff that a Dem or Republican has with party money?
Jonathan Darman: Money isn’t everything in an independent presidential bid but it’s a lot. Just to get on the ballot in a signficant number of states requires massive organization and the cash to suport it. Self-financed candidates have an automatic head-start there and in getting their name out there. Remember those half hours Ross Perot bought on national television to talk about the deficit in the 1992 campaign? Not everyone has that kind of money to spend.
Tampa, FL: What are Bloomberg’s biggest strengths and what will be his greatest challenges?
Jonathan Darman: Strengths: Bloomberg’s backers would point to his record in New York where he took launched some initially unpopular initiatives (a smoking ban, a property tax hike) but eventually was able to convince a large portion of the electorate of the wisdom of his plans. They think that, and his record as a creative, competent leader of Bloomberg LP make him the right choice for a country facing tough choices post-2008. Weaknesses: Bloomberg lists them himself — he’s short (5'7), divorced, Jewish and the mayor of New York City. And though he’s spent the past six years as a Republican many, even most, of his policy positions are closer to the Democratic Party.
San Francisco, CA.: Rather than running for the Presidency as an Independent, why doesn’t Bloomberg offer himself to Sen. Hillary Clinton? I believe he would be given a Cabinet Post were she to win the White House (HUD), for example. Just a thought. I wish he were Mayor of my city, San Francisco.
Jonathan Darman: Bloomberg may be doing just that. Some friends of the mayor say he’s simply letting all the speculation about him running for president run rampant so that he can stay relevant and raise his national profile. If he spends the next year establishing himself as the face of non-partisan, sensible government without ever actually getting in the race, he might look like a smart, coalition-building candidate for Clinton or another Democratic president. Two indicators that this possibility might be on Bloomberg’s mind: his reluctance to directly criticize Clinotn and his insistence that he won’t run just to be a spoiler for a Democratic nominee.
New York, NY: Do you think Bloomberg signed his death warrant by leaving the Republican psrty
Jonathan Darman: Not at all — Bloomberg never had particularly strong ties to the Republican party to begin with. (Remember, he was a registered Democrat until he ran for mayor of New York in 2001.) Socially liberal and from New York city, he has little hope of emerging as a national figure in today’s GOP. The only bridge he has probably burned is a chance to run as the Republican nominee for governor of New York at some point down the line. But mayors of New York usually claim to have little interest in that job anyway — in their minds, a sojourn in Albany can mean coming down in the world!
Sammamish, WA: How about Bloomberg (or Obama) as V.P. canidate on the Unity Party ticket supporting the most experienced, honest and visionary political leader in America, Al Gore. Dignified and internationally respected, only he can restore national honor.
Jonathan Darman: I’m not sure Bloomberg running as an independent VP candidate is that realistic. An independent ticket would surely want to take advantage of his vast financial resources and the guy who’s paying the bills generally wants to be top dog. But I wouldn’t discount the idea of a Democrat — Hillary, Gore or someone else — asking Bloomberg to serve as his/her running mate. Bloomberg might say yes. As my colleague Jonathan Alter writes in this week’s Newsweek, alpha males like Bloomberg always claim to have no interest in the job of vice-president, until they’re actually asked. By the time the Democrats start thinking about their vice presidential candidate they’ll also be plotting a move back toward the center after a primary campaign. Picking Bloomberg could ease that process.
Baton Rouge, LA: I’m puzzled at all the hype surrounding Bloomberg. I gather he’s been a competent mayor—but does he have an enthusiastic following? If you’re going outside the two-party system, seems to me you have to really be able to fire people up, and he seems like a kind of tepid figure to me. Am I missing something?
Jonathan Darman: It’s true — Bloomberg is often understated and utterly unflashy and lacks the star power of, say, an Arnold Schwarzenegger. And while his name is well known among high earners, who live and die by the financial information Bloomberg News provides them, he hasn’t done much so far to break through to lower income voters outside of New York. But Bloomberg’s biography does intersect with many of the generic qualities disaffected voters seem to be longing for in this election — competence, change and an end to partisan bickering.
Washington, D.C.: Is Bloomberg really that popular in New York? Rudy has this great reputation nationally—but I keep reading that New Yorkers don’t really like him that much. Is that true, and is the same true of Bloomberg?
Jonathan Darman: Bloomberg is very popular in New York City — recent polls have put his job approval above 70 percent. Part of his popularity springs from the perception he’s a kinder, gentler Giuliani — he can be lower-maintenance and quieter than his operatic predecessor. One of the fun hypotheticals to imagine when considering a Bloomberg presidential run is the possibility that Bloomberg could edge out his fellow New Yorkers Hillary Clinton and Giuliani in a battle for New York votes.
Ames, IA: I’m not sure how folks feel about the mayor in New York City, but out here my friends are a little suspicious of a guy who claims to have been a lifelong Democrat, switched to the Republicans when it suited his purposes, and now becomes an independent. Isn’t he just a big opportunist?
Jonathan Darman: That’s certainly what either of the two parties will say about Bloomberg should he actually get in the race as an independent. And it’s true that each of his party’s transformations has tracekd well with the mayor’s politcal needs in a particular moment. But in polls, independents and moderates — the people who could well make the difference in 2008 — say they’re tired of partisan rancor and gridlock. Bloomberg’s apparent disinterest in party loyalty could actually be attractive to them.
Lincoln, NE: Does the fact that he’s not married matter at all in presidential politics?
Jonathan Darman: Yes. Presidential candidates always complain about the media’s fascination with their marriages. But they still put their spouses up on the stage beside them becuase they know voters like the idea of a solid family in the White House. But Bloomberg’s bachelor status could matter less this cycle than in any other in recent memory because of the crop of candidates he might be running against. Consider the front-runners of the two parties: Republican Rudy Giuliani has been married three times and Democrat Hillary Clinton — well, the man she’s married to comes with his pluses and minuses.
Winnetka, IL: Has Bloomberg said anything to suggest he is seriously thinking about running for President as an independent or are people just speculating because of his actions?
Jonathan Darman: Bloomberg has said he intends to serve out his term as mayor of New York, which would keep him in office past the 2008 election. But some of his closest aides have actively talked up the idea of a Bloomberg third party candidacy and have in the past been eager to provide data suggesting the mayor might actually have a shot. Until Bloomberg reels in those aides, political professionals will assume the White House talk may be for real.
Richmond, VA: Of the candidates already in the race, who is Bloomberg closest to? If he doesn’t run, who do you think he would endorse?
Jonathan Darman: In the past, Bloomberg has spoken well of Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton. There is no love lost between Bloomberg and his predecessor as mayor, Rudy Giuliani. With his vast personal fortune and the election still a year and a half away, Bloomberg is under no time pressure to decide whether or not he’ll actually run as an independent. Both parties could choose their nominees as early as February of 2008. Bloomberg may well then take a look at the match-up and decide if he really wants to run against them.
Jonathan Darman: That’s all the time we have for today. Thanks for an interesting discussion, probably not the last one we’ll have about Michael Bloomberg in this long presidential campaign.
